In labor as in other policy domains, government action plays out in a context of powerful trends, some strongly affected by other government activities and some not. Understanding this context is a prerequisite to sound policy formation. To aid understanding of the forces impinging on the workforce and workplace of the 21st century, the US Department of Labor (DOL) asked RAND to conduct a study of the future of work. Specifically, we seek to answer two sets of questions about work in the 21st century: (1) What are the major factors that will shape the future of work in the current century and how are those factors likely to evolve over the next 10 to 15 years?; and (2) What are the implications of these future trends for key aspects of the future workforce and workplace, including the size, composition, and skills of the workforce; the nature of work and workplace arrangements; and worker compensation? To address these questions, we take a closer look at three major factors that are expected to shape the world of work in the coming decades: shifting demographic patterns, the pace of technological change, and the path of economic globalization. In doing so, our objective is not so much to predict the future but rather to understand key structural forces under way in the economy today, the factors associated with those trends, and whether we can expect such trends to continue or to deviate from their present course. We also aim to identify the implications of those trends and the challenges they pose for decision makers in the public and private sectors.
Excerpt from publication.
Chapters include: Chapter one: Introduction; The challenges of looking to the future; A guiding framework; Chapter two: Shifting demographic parameters shaping the future workforce; Slower workforce growth ahead; The workforce is becoming ever more diverse; The key characteristic of the future workforce is skill; Addressing the slowdown in labor force growth; Changing demographics also shift demand for goods and services; Demographics and the future of work; Chapter three: The information age and beyond: the reach of technology; The advent of the information age; Applications of the 'new biology'; Nanotechnology: revolutionary technology on the horizon; How technology is affecting the workforce and workplace; Technology and the future of work; Chapter four: A new era of global integration; The phenomenon of economic global integration; Forces behind global economic integration; How economic globalization is affecting the US economy, the workforce, and the workplace; Economic globalization and the future of work; Chapter five: Implications for work in the twenty-first century; New paradigms for the organization of production; Shifts in employment relationships and where work is performed; Other workplace dimensions: safety, security, and privacy; The changing nature of work and the skill requirements of jobs; Supplying the workforce needs of the future; Changing the rewards to work; Conclusions.
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